Although there are already several answers here, I decided to present my solution. I believe it offers a clear and intuitive way to see why the "Lie bracket = Lie derivative" relationship is natural.
Let $F(t,x)$ be the flow generated by $X$, and let $G(t,x)$ be the flow generated by $Y$.
For convenience, set $M = \mathbb{R}^n$ and $p = 0$. Specifically, we will make use of the fact that in $\mathbb{R}^n$ we can compute the difference between two points. This might look somewhat crude from an abstract manifold perspective, but this approach will soon reveal its usefulness.
Define the following maps in $\mathbb{R}^n$:
$$
\Delta_1(t,s) = G(s, F(t, 0)) - F(t, G(s, 0)),
$$
$$
\Delta_2(t,s) = F(-t, G(s, F(t, 0))) - G(s, 0).
$$
Intuitively, $\Delta_1$’s left-hand side term represents "first flowing along $X$ for time $t$, then along $Y$ for time $s$", while its right-hand side does the reverse. This makes the statement that the "Lie derivative measures the commutativity of two vector fields" explicit.
$\Delta_2$ is performing a similar task, just with a different order of combining flow paths. However, after expanding the definitions, it becomes clear that
$
\partial_t \partial_s \Delta_2(0, 0)
$
matches the abstract definition of the Lie derivative. If we compute this derivative directly, it will yield
the Lie bracket $\partial_X Y - \partial_Y X$, though I aim to connect the concepts in a more intuitive way.
In fact, it’s clear that
$$
\Delta_1(t,0) \equiv \Delta_1(0, s) \equiv 0,
$$
so performing a second-order Taylor expansion of $\Delta_1$ leaves only one term: $\partial_t \partial_s \Delta_1 \cdot st$.
The same holds for $\Delta_2$.
Now, let’s illustrate that $\Delta_1$ indeed corresponds to the concept of the abstract Lie bracket. Given a smooth function $f$, define
$$
f_F(t, s) = f(F(t, 0)), \quad f_G(t, s) = f(G(s, 0)),
$$
$$
f_{GF}(t, s) = f(G(s, F(t, 0))), \quad f_{FG}(t, s) = f(F(t, G(s, 0))).
$$
Then, define
$$
\Delta_{1, XY}(t, s) = (f_{GF} - f_F) - (f_G - f_0).
$$
$$
\Delta_{1, YX}(t, s) = (f_{FG} - f_G) - (f_F - f_0),
$$
According to the definition,
$$
\lim_{s, t \to 0} \frac{1}{st} \Delta_{1, XY} = XYf, \quad
\lim_{s, t \to 0} \frac{1}{st} \Delta_{1, YX} = YXf.
$$
Noting that after omitting higher-order terms,
$$
\Delta_{1, XY} - \Delta_{1, YX} = f_{GF} - f_{FG} \approx (\Delta_1(t,s) \cdot \nabla) f,
$$
we see that
$
\partial_t \partial_s \Delta_1(0, 0)
$
is indeed the Lie bracket.
To prove that the $\partial_s \partial_t$ derivatives of $\Delta_1$ and $\Delta_2$ at $(0,0)$ are equal, we could compute them directly (and it is easy). However, I’ll use a more intuitive method to show their equality. Consider the following auxiliary map:
$$
\Delta(t, s, r) = F(-r, G(s, F(t, 0))) - F(-r, F(t, G(s, 0))).
$$
Intuitively, it serves as a bridge between $\Delta_1$ and $\Delta_2$:
$$
\Delta_1(t, s) = \Delta(t, s, 0), \quad \Delta_2(t, s) = \Delta(t, s, t).
$$
Clearly, $\Delta(0, s, r) \equiv \Delta(t, 0, r) \equiv 0$, so its second partial derivatives at $(0,0,0)$ have only $\partial_s \partial_t$ nonzero. Thus, when $t = s = r =0$,
$$
\partial_{ts} \Delta_2 = \partial_{ts} \Delta + \partial_{sr} \Delta = \partial_{ts} \Delta = \partial_{ts} \Delta_1,
$$
which confirms that the Lie derivative equals the Lie bracket.
As a bonus, we can observe that besides $\Delta_1$ and $\Delta_2$, there is yet another way to combine the flow lines:
$$
\Delta_3(t, s) = G(-s, F(-t, G(s, F(t, 0)))),
$$
In fact, $\Delta_3(\sqrt{t}, \sqrt{t})$ corresponds to the curve given in this MO answer.