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A green circle is tangent to a red circle and a black circle. The three circles have equal radii. Their centres are collinear and distinct.

Random point $A$ is chosen on the red circle. Random points $B$ and $C$ are chosen on the green circle. (All random points are independent and uniformly distributed.)

Red green and black circles, point A on red circle, points B and C on green circle

Using complicated integration, it can be shown that lines $\overleftrightarrow{AB}$ and $\overleftrightarrow{BC}$ have the same probability of intersecting the black circle. The probability is $$\frac34-\frac{2}{\pi^2}\left(\frac38\ln^22+\operatorname{Li}_2\left(-\sqrt2\right)+3\operatorname{Li}_2\left(\frac{1}{\sqrt2}\right)\right)$$

which is approximately $0.3871287106$.

Is there an intuitive explanation for why $\overleftrightarrow{AB}$ and $\overleftrightarrow{BC}$ have the same probability of intersecting the black circle?

I made a random line generator.

Dan
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    3d visualization: for $\overleftrightarrow{AB}$, let the x- and y-axes determine the "angle" of the points A and B respectively. Then we can calculate the distance of $\overleftrightarrow{AB}$ to the center of the black circle (the origin). When we subtract 1 (the radius of the black circle) and graph the result, we can visually see 38.7% of the graph is below the XY-plane. Links: AB BC. Note that the probabilities match regardless of the black circle's radius. – Tom Sirgedas Aug 14 '25 at 21:07
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    Here is a generalization, in which the radii of the three circles are in a geometeric sequence. – Dan Aug 22 '25 at 23:11
  • does it generalize to a 4th circle? – NooneAtAll3 Aug 23 '25 at 14:13
  • @NooneAtAll3 I don't know. – Dan Aug 23 '25 at 14:29
  • @NooneAtAll3 shifting the red circle to the left (any amount) increases the probability. – Tom Sirgedas Aug 23 '25 at 14:44

2 Answers2

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Here is one explanation. Let $O$ be the center of the green circle which has radius 1, and let $Y$ be the $y$-coordinate of a random point on the green circle. Let $Y'$ be an identical independent copy of $Y$. We claim that the probabilities of $AB$ or $BC$ intersecting the black circle are both equal to $$1-2\mathbb{P}(Y\leq 2Y'-1).$$ Let's do $BC$ first. It suffices to show that the probability that the line $BC$ goes below the black circle is $\mathbb{P}(Y\leq 2Y'-1)$. We will sample $BC$ by independently sampling $B$ and a random direction (say a line $\ell$ through $O$). Then we will take $C$ so that $BC\parallel \ell$. Let $S$ be the point on the lower part of the black circle so that the tangent $t$ to the black circle at $S$ is parallel to $\ell$.

Image for BC

Then $S$ is uniformly distributed on the lower half of the black circle, and is independent of $B$. Rotate the coordinate axes (keeping $O$ as the origin), so that the $x$-axis is now parallel to $\ell$, with the positive $x$ direction still pointing to the right. Let $Z$ be the $y$-coordinate of the tangent line $t$. Observe that $Z$ has the same distribution as $2Y-1$. We can see that by letting $Q$ be the center of the black circle, then since $\angle OQS$ is uniformly random on $(0,\pi)$, the $y$-coordinate of $Q$ has the same distribution as $2Y$, thus $Z$ has the same distribution as $2Y-1$. We are now done, since the probability that $B$ lies below the line $t$ is $\mathbb{P}(Y'\leq 2Y-1)$.

Now for $AB$. It suffices to show that the probability that the line $AB$ goes above the black circle is $\mathbb{P}(Y\leq 2Y'-1)$. Let $B$ be a random point on the green circle, and draw the upper tangent $t$ from $B$ to the black circle. Rotate the coordinate axes (keeping $O$ as the origin), so that the $x$-axis is now parallel to $t$, with the positive $x$ direction still pointing to the right. Let $W$ be the $y$-coordinate of the tangent line $t$.

Image for AB

We claim that $W$ has the same distribution as $Y$. To see this, first note that the range of $W$ is $[-1,1]$. Then for any $y\in [-1,1]$, draw the upper tangent $t'$ to the black circle so that the signed distance from $O$ to $t'$ is $y$ (signed so that if $t=t'$, then $y=W$). Then the event $W>y$ is precisely when $B$ lies above $t'$, which has the same probability as $Y>y$. Thus $W,Y$ are equally distributed. Let $P$ be the center of the red circle, then the signed distance from $P$ to $t$ is $2W-1$. Sample $A$ randomly on the red circle, then $AB$ going above the black circle is the same as $A$ lying below $t$, which occurs with probability $\mathbb{P}(Y\leq 2W-1)=\mathbb{P}(Y\leq 2Y'-1)$, as desired.

Dean Miller
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Lim Jeck
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  • You said "We will sample $BC$ by independently sampling $B$ and a random direction (say a line $\ell$ through $O$). Then we will take $C$ so that $BC\parallel \ell$." How does this choose $C$ uniformly randomly? – Benjamin Wang Aug 29 '25 at 12:59
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    When $B$ is fixed, the probability that $C$ lies on any given arc, say $DE$, is proportional to $\angle DBE$. But the angle $DBE$ subtended by the arc $DE$ is also proportional to the arclength of $DE$, so $C$ is uniform on the circle. – Lim Jeck Aug 29 '25 at 13:13
  • I see. Basically the inscribed angle theorem https://proofwiki.org/wiki/Inscribed_Angle_Theorem – Benjamin Wang Aug 29 '25 at 13:28
  • at what height does y=0 lay? you never showed the axis you're measuring Y and Y' against – NooneAtAll3 Aug 29 '25 at 19:27
  • You mention "the $y$-coordinate of the tangent line $t$" in two places. Do you mean the $y$-intercept of the tangent line $t$? – Dan Aug 30 '25 at 07:58
  • The tangent line $t$ is parallel to the x-axis, so by "the y-coordinate of $t$", I mean the y-intercept, or the y-coordinate of any point on $t$. – Lim Jeck Sep 07 '25 at 05:36
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Here is a solution which is heavy on Euclidean geometry, but completely elementary.

Let $P,Q,O$ be the centres of the red, green and black circles, respectively. We will show the stronger statement as observed in the comments that $d(AB,O)$ and $d(BC,O)$ are identically distributed.

First, let $X$ be the foot of the altitude from $O$ to $BC$, so that $$d(BC,O)=OX=OB\lvert\sin\theta\rvert,$$ where $\theta=\angle OBC=(\frac\pi2-\angle QBO)-\frac12\angle BQC$. For fixed $B$ and random $C$, we have $\angle BQC$ is uniformly distributed mod $2\pi$, so $\theta$ is uniformly distributed mod $\pi$. Diagram for d(BC,O).

We now aim to show that $d(AB,O)$ has the same distribution. Let $Z$ be the tangency point of the red and green circles. For $A,B$ picked independently and uniformly at random, let $B'$ be on the green circle such that $\angle APZ=\angle BQB'$ as directed angles; it is clear that $A,B'$ are also independent and uniform. Diagram defining B'.

From here on we view $B'$ as fixed and $A$ as uniformly random. Now the orientation-preserving isometry sending $\triangle APZ$ to $\triangle BQB'$ must be a rotation, say centred at $D$; then $DP=DQ$ implies that $DZ$ is the common tangent to the two circles, and $DZ=DB'$ implies that $DB'$ is also a tangent to the green circle. (In particular, $D$ is constant as $A$ varies.) Diagram defining D.

Next, let $M$ be the midpoint of $AB$, so that $DA=DB$ implies that $DM$ is the perpendicular bisector of $AB$. Now $\triangle DPQ\sim\triangle DBA$ implies that $\triangle DZP\sim\triangle DMA$, so by spiral similarity we have $\triangle DZM\sim\triangle DPA$. Hence $ZM=PA\frac{DZ}{DP}$ is constant, and $\angle DZM=\angle DPA$ is uniform mod $2\pi$, so $M$ is distributed uniformly on a fixed circle $\omega$ centred at $Z$. Taking $A=Z$ shows that $\omega$ contains the midpoint of $ZB'$, so that $\omega$ is tangent to $DP$ and $DQ$.

Let $N$ be the foot of the altitude from $O$ to $DM$, so that $MN=d(AB,O)$. Now the above discussion allows us to forget about points $A,B$ and the two circles. Simplified configuration.

To recap, we now have $M$ chosen uniformly on the circle $\omega$, and we want the distribution of the length $MN$. We do this by a coordinate change: instead of fixing $D,O$ and rotating $M$ around $Z$, we will fix $M$ and rotate $D,O$ around $Z$: Diagram in rotated coordinate system.

We have $\angle DZO=\angle DNO=\frac\pi2$ implies that $DZNO$ is cyclic, so $\angle ZND=\angle ZOD$ is constant. Hence in these coordinates, $N$ lies on a fixed circle $\Omega$ passing through $Z,M$. Let $\delta$ denote the diameter of $\Omega$; now note that for any $\alpha\in[0,\frac\pi2]$, the set of $D$ for which $MN\ge\delta\cos\alpha$ has total angular measure exactly $4\alpha$: Angle subtended by admissible points D.

Indeed, with $S$ as the centre of $\Omega$, let $N_1,N_2$ be on $\Omega$ such that $\angle N_1MS=\angle N_2MS=\alpha$. Then the set of admissible points $D$ are given by arcs $D_1D_2$ and $D_3D_4$, with total angular measure $$\begin{align*} \angle D_1ZD_2+\angle D_3ZD_4&=2(\angle D_1D_3D_2+\angle D_3D_2D_4)\\ &=2\angle D_1MD_2\\ &=4\alpha. \end{align*}$$ Hence as $D$ varies uniformly on its circle, $MN$ is distributed as $\delta\cos\alpha$, with $\alpha$ uniform in $[0,\frac\pi2]$. This is the same distribution as $\delta\sin\beta$, with $\beta$ uniform in $[0,\pi]$.

Finally, we will compute the value of $\delta$. Note that when $DM$ is tangent to $\omega$, we have $\delta=ZN$ by Thales's theorem, since $\angle ZMN=\frac\pi2$: Diameter of Omega.

Bringing back the original diagram, we see that this happens precisely when $A=Z$ and $B=B'$: Special configuration to determine delta.

Now $\triangle QAM\sim\triangle QON$ implies that $ON=AM\frac{QO}{QA}=2AM=AB'$. Hence $ANOB'$ is a parallelogram, so $\delta=ZN=AN=OB'$.

In conclusion, $d(AB,O)$ is distributed as $OB'\sin\beta$, with $B'$ uniform on the green circle and $\beta$ uniform in $[0,\pi]$, and we are done.

chronondecay
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